Outlook

Economic and industry-specific conditions

The military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and their political and economic consequences currently pose an additional significant risk to the development of the global economy, the prices of important energy sources such as oil and gas, and the further recovery of the entire aviation industry. The following comments on the outlook for 2022 do not yet include the effects of the crisis, as these cannot be estimated at present.

The global economy is currently in the recovery phase. The ifo Institute forecasts economic growth of 4.4% and 3.2% for 2022 and 2023 respectively. The effects of the coronavirus pandemic will continue to shape economic development in 2022. It can be assumed that health policy measures are still being implemented in many countries. The economic recovery will be inhibited as a result. In the course of 2021, there were supply bottlenecks worldwide, particularly for important industrial intermediates. These have intensified until recently and will continue to weigh on the global economy in 2022. However, adjustments in production processes, an improvement in the pandemic situation and price allocation mechanisms should ease the situation for the foreseeable future. The majority of business sentiment in most countries is optimistic. Very high order backlogs in the industrial sector are also likely to accelerate investment momentum.30)

According to the ifo Institute’s forecast, economic output in the industrialized nations is likely to expand at a rate of 4.1% in 2022. Strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.4% is expected for the USA. The economic recovery after the pandemic will be supported by expansive fiscal policy stimuli. However, persistent supply bottlenecks are holding back U.S. industrial development. Economic growth in the United Kingdom is also forecast to be high at 5.1% in 2022. The service sector and private consumption will only be marginally affected by the consequences of the pandemic due to the almost non-existent Corona measures. However, industrial development will still be hampered by supply bottlenecks in 2022. As a result of Brexit, there are labor shortages in some areas.31)

According to the forecast, the emerging markets group will achieve overall economic growth of 4.9% in 2022. After a strong recovery so far, the Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of only 5.1% in 2022. Delivery problems for industrial intermediate products, a less expansive monetary and fiscal policy, and a tougher course in the regulation of various sectors of the economy are slowing economic momentum in China. India was particularly hard hit by a wave of coronavirus (delta variant) infections in the spring of 2021. This led to an interruption in the economic recovery, which is now expected to continue. India’s forecast growth rate of 9.7% is correspondingly high.31)

In the euro zone, economic output is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2022. In addition to the supply bottlenecks already mentioned, the economy is burdened by the increased incidence of infections in the fall and winter months. Since the fall of 2021, increasing infection dynamics were already evident in large parts of Europe. Many countries have therefore stepped up their health policy measures again. This is expected to weigh on the euro area economy, especially in the first quarter of 2022. However, economic losses are usually cushioned by government support measures. The summer months should therefore see a strong recovery in line with the previous year. The ifo Institute expects gross domestic product (GDP) in France to grow by 3.5% in 2022. For Italy and Spain, growth rates of 4.4% and 5.5%, respectively, have been forecast.30)

According to the forecast, the German economy will expand by 3.7% in 2022. Due to the high proportion of industry, the economic situation in the Federal Republic is particularly burdened by the continuing supply bottlenecks. The proportion of companies whose production is hampered by this is currently at a historically high level. This is also one of the key drivers of the current high inflation rate. However, adjustments in production processes, an easing of the pandemic situation and price allocation mechanisms should ease the situation by the end of 2022. An inflation rate of 3.3% is forecast for 2022. In 2023, consumer price inflation should normalize at a rate of 1.8%. The services sector will be impacted by measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, particularly in the first quarter of 2022. Unlike in the previous year, however, it is not expected that there will be full-scale closures. A significant recovery in the service sector can then be expected in the summer half-year. Similarly, the recovery on the labor market is likely to stagnate in the first quarter and then pick up again. Overall, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from an annual average of 5.7% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2022. Fiscal policy will remain expansionary in 2022, albeit less so than in the previous year. In 2023, the pandemic-related measures should then expire and thus no longer have any fiscal relevance.30)

The oil price (Brent) increased significantly in 2021 compared to the crisis year 2020. In 2021, the annual average oil price was $70.40 per barrel (2020: $41.80 per barrel). Until the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the ifo Institute assumed that the oil price would only marginally increase its level to $71.80 per barrel in 2022.32) Currently, market participants expect volatility to remain high in view of the Ukraine conflict.

The demographic and economic general conditions in Bavaria and especially in the airport catchment area mean that further strong growth in transportation demand can be expected at Munich in the medium to long term despite short-term slumps. According to the results of the regionalized population projection by the Bavarian State Statistical Office, Bavaria’s population will grow by 3.9% by 2040 compared to 2020. A strong to very strong population increase is expected in the Munich region in particular. In the state capital of Munich, the figure is expected to be 8.2%; the rural district of Munich is likely to increase by 6.9%. Four of the fastest-growing districts are also located in the nearby catchment area of Munich Airport. Growth of 10.3% and 10.5% is forecast for the districts of Ebersberg and Dachau, respectively, and 11.3% and 11.8% for the districts of Pfaffenhofen a. d. Ilm and Landshut, respectively.33)

The global aviation market is suffering severely from the coronavirus pandemic. The outlook for the near future is less positive than that of other sectors. The travel restrictions that remain in place continue to be a significant burden. During the crisis, however, air traffic was able to prove its systemic relevance by transporting medical goods, among other things. Until the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, IATA projected that global air traffic demand would continue to recover in 2022, reaching 61% of pre-crisis levels worldwide. While domestic air traffic is forecast to recover to 93%, international air traffic is expected to develop much more modestly and therefore reach only 44% of its pre-crisis level in 2022.34)

Forecast course of business

To date, the aviation industry has been more severely and directly affected by the consequences of the spread of the coronavirus than other industries. Globally, coronavirus case rates behave differently from state to state. Nevertheless, Munich Airport expects a significant recovery in 2022, following the positive development of travel demand in 2021. The Group is currently expecting passenger numbers to more than double compared to the previous year. The expected passenger volume is thus around two-thirds of the pre-crisis level in 2019.

Based on current estimates, management expects to return to 2019 air traffic volumes in 2024. However, this assumption remains highly uncertain and depends heavily on how quickly the pandemic can be contained worldwide, particularly through global application of vaccines. Vaccination rates worldwide are not yet sufficiently high, so new virus variants could emerge. If these were to lead to rising incidence figures and extensive travel restrictions again, then this would result in a «material» negative impact on the Group’s business performance, results of operations situation and all key financial figures.

Munich Airport assumes that the impact of the crisis will continue to have a lasting effect on the Group’s economic development in all business segments in 2022. The extent to which the consequences of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions already imposed will affect the assets, financial position, and results of operations cannot be estimated at present.

Depending on the further course of the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic, deviations from the following forecast are possible.

With regard to revenue from airport charges, the Executive Board assumes an increase in line with the development of traffic with reference to the newly concluded multi-year master agreement on charges.

Retail sales will also develop positively in line with the recovery in transport. In contrast to 2021, all stores are assumed to be open year-round in 2022.

Revenue from catering and hotels as well as from handling operations, parking and advertising is assumed to grow at a lower rate than growth in air traffic.

Revenues from rentals and leases are expected to remain essentially constant compared with 2021.

Other revenues, which include throughput charges for aviation fuel supply, revenues for utilities and fuel, and global management, consulting and training services for the aviation industry, develop significantly less than traffic growth, but also depend on it only to a limited extent.

In total, management expects sales to roughly double compared to 2021.

Overall, the cost of materials is expected to increase at a lower rate than sales. The maintenance and remodeling measures included in this figure will increase due to corresponding catch-up effects from 2020 and 2021 and, among other things, in connection with a modernization at the Hilton hotel.

Personnel expenses in the Group will increase by around one fifth. The main reason for this is, on the one hand, the reduced subsidization of short-time work by the public sector and, on the other hand, the reduced short-time work rates in 2022 due to the renewed increase in the use of personnel for projects and operationally relevant processes and tasks. However, this expense-increasing effect is also offset by expense-reducing effects. As a result of natural fluctuation, retirement and the «Restart» change program, the average number of employees in the Group will fall year-on-year. The emergency collective agreement for German airports applied in parts of the Group also has a cost-reducing effect.

Other expenses are also expected to rise as business picks up.

Depreciation and amortization will decrease due to asset impairments recognized in 2021.

The financial result is expected to deteriorate due to the annual compounding effects in connection with financial liabilities from interests in partnerships.

In view of the fact that revenue will continue to be rather low compared with pre-crisis levels and that countermeasures on the expense side are only possible to a limited extent (reducing expenses to the minimum necessary for operations and required by law), Munich Airport expects that earnings before taxes (EBT) will continue to be negative in fiscal 2022, even after extensive countermeasures have been implemented.

Management is making massive efforts to secure liquidity and create additional financial flexibility. This will be achieved through cuts in all costs and investments. For example, construction projects that can be delayed, which are not operationally necessary or of great strategic relevance, are postponed to the future. Management remains committed to strategic projects such as pier T1 and LabCampus. The results of the «Restart» program will be implemented in 2022 and also in subsequent years, which includes in particular reducing measures in the personnel area through early retirement schemes and volunteer programs.

Munich Airport is in constant contact with its principal banks regarding any liquidity requirements that may arise. In the course of 2022, the air traffic, earnings and liquidity forecasts will be continuously updated and, depending on the further course of the crisis, a decision will be made as to when and to what extent an increase in the existing credit lines must be initiated and, if necessary, new funds raised. This ensures that the Group has the necessary liquidity at all times.

The anticipated liquidity depletion assumes that the countermeasures for expenses, investments and personnel are implemented, air traffic recovers and reaches the expected level. If these assumptions do not come to pass in the manner outlined, this may lead to an increased liquidity demand and consequently to earlier consumption of the existing liquidity reserves. From its current perspective, Munich Airport will be able to cover any higher liquidity requirements on the capital market.

Projected major financial and non-financial key performance indicators:

Projected major financial and non-financial key performance indicators

 

 

2021

 

2022

 

 

Actual

 

Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

from

 

to

 

 

 

 

 

 

In %

 

In %

EBT (in T€)

 

-336,257

 

Increase

 

50.0

 

90.0

Carbon reductions (in tonnes)1), 2)

 

1,083

 

Increase

 

88.0

 

93.0

Passenger Experience Index Overall Satisfaction3)

 

84.98

 

Unchanged

 

 

 

0.0

Lost Time Incident Frequency (LTIF)4)

 

 

 

Decrease

 

 

 

-3.0

1)

Actual value of carbon reductions 2021 without savings from use of PCA, i.e. only energy efficiency and supply.

2)

Depending on the data basis, the savings are determined on the basis of measurements, product data sheets or performance data on nameplates and documented in the CO2 database. In exceptional cases, experience values of comparable measures that have already been completed and verified are used.

3)

In 2021, only the value from the second half of 2021 could be used as the target value for overall satisfaction from the Passenger Experience Index, as passenger surveys were only conducted in this period.

4)

2019 (LTIF: 21.96) was used as the comparison period.

Earnings before taxes (EBT)

Overall, Munich Airport expects EBT to improve significantly, but still to be negative. The exact trend depends above all on the progress of the coronavirus pandemic and is difficult to estimate at present. This means that in 2022, Munich Airport will still be significantly behind the record year of 2019 before the crisis.

Carbon reductions

Carbon reductions are expected to increase significantly in 2022 following the sharp decline in 2021. Due to supply delays, some measures planned for 2021 and already started will not be completed until 2022. Additional savings from efficiency measures are targeted for 2022. The planned measures should primarily reduce the energy requirement for lighting and air conditioning technology.

Passenger Experience Index (PEI)

The forecast value of 84.98 in the Passenger Experience Index (PEI) for 2022 is set at the 2021 level, as the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic on PEI cannot be determined at this time. For 2022, the passenger development of the second half of 2021 is generally expected to continue.

Lost Time Incident Frequency (LTIF)

Due to the current Corona situation and its impact on air traffic, the current trend in the Lost Time Incident Frequency (LTIF) is difficult to predict. The forecast of accident numbers for 2022 is based on the forecast hours worked for 2022. This assumes a 3% improvement in LTIF.

To achieve this goal, measures are planned to minimize the potential impact on accident occurrence. The project to strengthen the occupational safety culture at AE Munich will be continued as soon as possible. The aim is to reduce occupational accidents by ensuring safe behavior in the workplace. In addition, work organization at FMG and AE Munich is analyzed in dialogue with managers, with a focus on accident occurrence/reduction and risk assessments, and optimized where necessary. In addition, training courses for managers are planned from the second quarter of 2022 as part of the mental risk assessments.

30) ifo Institute, Economic Forecast Winter 2021, December 2021

31) ifo Institute, Economic Forecast Winter 2021, December 2021; German Council of Economic Experts, Annual Report 2021/22, November 2021

32) ifo Institute, Economic Forecast Winter 2021, December 2021

33) Bavarian State Statistical Office, Regionalized Population Projection for Bavaria to 2040, January 2022

34) IATA, Losses Reduce but Challenges Continue – Cumulative $201 Billion Losses for 2020–2022, October 4, 2021

Share this report on social media: